Xi Jinping’s Wrath

Ichiro Suzuki

On November 7 at the House of Representative’s Budgetary Committee, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi elaborated what could constitute a situation that threatens Japan’s survival in the event of China’s invasion into Taiwan. She also spoke how Japan might react to such a situation including deployment of the Self Defense Force. Japan’s left-leaning media gleefully reported it as her ‘war plan’. 

Chinese Consul in Osaka Xue Jian immediately reacted to it in the Chinese embassy’s social media with a violent remark “We would have her dirty neck chopped off” though it was deleted shortly afterward. This utterly undiplomatic statement caused an uproar in Japan’s conservative circle. Voices grew to name the diplomat persona non-grata, and have him expelled out of the country. At this point, there was no reaction from Beijing. 

On November 13, the Chinese Communist Party opened its mouth, not surprisingly displaying furies vehemently. The CCP denounced Takaichi fiercely and demanded her to retract the statement. Beijing must have been well aware of Japan’s national security contingency plan, especially in the context of the bilateral pact with the United States. With his ambition of ‘uniting’ Taiwan during his presidency, which might last indefinitely, Xi Jinping allows nothing to be said about Taiwan by anyone. On top of it, to Xi the junior partner of the bilateral alliance had no right to bring it up to the public at a time when the U.S. has been trying to hold onto ambiguity, at least on surface. Even hawkish Shinzo Abe didn’t make it clear. Takaichi was going to hold onto that line originally, but she was forced to respond to persistent questions from Takuya Okada of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party for more details. National security details are not something to be openly discussed at the Diet, but Okada chose to do it for political points. Worse, he was once Foreign Minister and was supposed to be aware what it meant to do it. Okada has received lots of blames in Japan for underwriting a diplomatic mess. This incident has exposed a truth that has been hidden until then. The CCP and the Constitutional Democrats as well as the left-leaning media have a shared interest. 

Takaichi has no intention of taking it back, since she had said what’s been long shared in the national security establishment and the public has been aware of it. It is a risk scenario that any country may draw. For the SDF to be deployed, it takes the People’s Liberation Army’s invasion into Taiwan. Such a conduct would make Japan feel threatened because of geographical proximity of some Japanese islands, Okinawa notably, to Taiwan. Japanese citizens living in Taiwan might have to be evacuated, too. From a legalistic point of view, Japan is mandated to step in to assist the United States, exercising the right of collective defense, in the event of the President of the United State’s decision to defend Taiwan militarily. In summery, two things have to happen for the SDF’s deployment over Taiwan: China’s military invasion into Taiwan, and the U.S.’s rescue operation over the island.

No Japanese politician thinks about unilateral military actions over Taiwan, but it was exactly what the CCP’s propaganda machine has been promoting as Japan’s plan since then. Wolf warrior diplomacy has got a new lease on life. For instance, the PRC has been denouncing Japan’s military expansion at the United Nations. Yes, the size of defense budget has been going up in recent years. The U.S. has been pushing Japan, and other allies, to allocate greater resources to defense spending as the U.S. is becoming less willing to shoulder single-handedly the burden of the world’s policeman. China’s defense spending is rising a great deal faster than Japan’s. Democracies in the West are feeling growing threat, from Russia in Europe and China, North Korea and Russia in the Far East. Propaganda from China certainly doesn’t resonate with G7 and countries that are close to it, but some of China’s clients may subscribe to the story. It also sells among the Chinese population, especially among those in rural China. 

Not surprisingly, Beijing has embarked on economic coercion, yet again. Every time, the CCP feels incensed by a conduct of a foreign country, they try to inflict economic damages to the opponent though such move is often outside of the boundaries of what the WTO allows. In 2020, China banned imports of Australian wine and other products in response to Prime Minister Morrison’s demand for studying the origin of COVID-19. In 2016, South Korea’s decision to deploy THAARD missiles led to wide boycotting of South Korean products. The boycott resulted in exodus of South Korean companies from China. In 2012 the Japanese government bought Senkaku Islands from a private Japanese owner. ‘Nationalization’ of the islands led to wide boycotting of Japanese products. People marched the streets in large cities, vandalizing Japanese stores and restaurants. In 2010, selection of activist Liu Xiaobao as Nobel Peace Prize winner infuriated the CCP, leading them to ban imports of Norwegian salmon. Xi Jinping rose to power near the end of 2012. Vehement reaction to foreign countries’ conduct has been embedded in the CCP, and Xi is firmly holding onto it. On the other hand, the CCP doesn’t pick on the U.S. amid intensifying trade war. Only junior partners are harassed, 

This time around, Beijing is discouraging Chinese people from traveling to Japan, for pleasure or studying, telling them how dangerous it is to be visiting the country. Chinese airlines’ flights to Japan have been reduced substantially. Japanese artists’ concerts in China are cancelled. The CCP is also retracting the decision to import sea food from Japan, which has been suspended since treated water from Fukushima nuclear power plant was discharged into sea in 2023. Then, on December 6, Chinese fighter jets had directed fire-control radar at Japanese military aircrafts on two different occasions. Japan reported it and China, of course, denied. For all these, however, Beijing’s display of furies is more controlled and than the 2012 episodes, it appears.

Takaichi is standing firmly, and this is keeping her approval rating high. The public sees no reason for her to behave obsequiously to soothe Xi’s wrath. On the other hand, Constitutional Democrats and the left-leaning media want the PM to back down to ‘normalize’ the relationship. Constitutional Democrats have revealed who they are and might end up with brutal results in the next election, especially if a general election is called early. In the past, pro-China Komeito, which was a long time coalition partner with LDP, or pro-China members of the LDP functioned as lubricant when tensions rose between China and Japan. Komeito, however, has left the coalition upon Takaichi’s ascent. The LDP’s pro-China faction is no longer as influential as thy used to be, with retirement of the faction’s boss, Toshihiro Nikai. Without lubricant, it may take sometime before normalcy is restored for the bilateral relationship, possibly until a new PM arrives. There is every indication that Takaichi is going to be around for some time. The business community has to live with it, and they have been moving to diversify risks since this is not the first time a unique country risk associated with China has been brought to light. 

About the author: Mr. Suzuki is a retired banker based in Tokyo, Japan.