Japan’s First Female Prime Minister

Ichiro Suzuki

On October 21, Japan’s Diet (Parliament) has elected a woman as the country’s Prime Minister, for the first time ever at last. It is a remarkable feat in a land of persisting male chauvinism to have the first female leader. While female prime minister may have lost novelty elsewhere by now, the United States, France, China and Russia are yet to elect a woman as President. 

Sanae Takaichi is also the first female president of the Liberal Democratic Party that has ruled Japan for the last seven decades except for several years. In a party loaded with sons, grand sons and great grand sons of former politicians, Takaichi is a rare breed of first generation politician who grew up in a middle class family. Remotely associated with affluence, her father sent her only to more affordable public institutions for education all the way through college. This is becoming increasingly rare in Japan today, especially among LDP politicians. Sons and grandsons usually receive education at private schools. 

Takaichi has been the darling of the conservatives wing of the LDP. While it may have become difficult recently to draw a line between conservatism and authoritarianism, Takaichi definitely doesn’t belong in the authoritarian camp. She has never said anything that tests the limit of rule of law. In the LDP, no politician has strong leaning toward authoritarians, at least not yet. Authoritarian instincts are found in the burgeoning Do-it-yourself Party (Sanseito) that made a splash in the Upper House election in summer. Her conservatism is defined by hawkishness in national security issues that include her stance on China, possible deployment of Self Defense Forces in the event of emergency in Taiwan, much talked-about legislation of anti-spy law and visits to Yasukuni Shrine that enshrines the souls of war victims including war criminals and often sparks heated resentment from China and South Korea. 

On economic issues, she unabashedly advocates continuation of ‘Abenomics’, a policy mix employed by the late Shinzo Abe who was Prime Minister for much of the last decade. Both Abe and Takaichi were elected to the House of Representatives (the Lower House) in 1993 for the first time and were close friends. Abenomics consisted of ‘three arrows’ that represented aggressive monetary easing, large scale fiscal stimulus and deregulation. The three arrows would lift the Japanese economy out of mild deflation that persisted for two decades, as it was sold. Abe was aggressive on easy money and fiscal stimulation and these two had noticeable effects on the economy, lifting depressed asset prices and weakening currency from excessively expensive levels, thus, boosting corporate profits. The third arrow, however, was never shot in earnest. Though he pushed for gradual deregulation, no sweeping changes were made on the frameworks on which the economy is run. More distinctive changes would have delivered higher growth rates to Japan. Deregulation is hard to do since politicians have to look after a variety of vested interests to get reelected. When Takaichi talks about Abenomics, it is about the first two arrows that are easier to launch than the third one. She has never been an ardent deregulation advocate in her economic policy. With her policy initiatives, Takaichi isn’t embracing genuinely traditional conservatism that prioritizes fiscal integrity and deregulation. Though inspired by Margaret Thatcher, who was aggressive on deregulation, Takaichi isn’t enthusiastic about it. 

Upon election of Takaichi as the LDP president, Komeito has announced departure from the ruling coalition after 26 years as the LDP’s junior partner. For Komeito that positions themselves center-left, election of a very conservative woman was hard to take. Their departure has immediately threatened the LDP’s chance of keeping running the government since the coalition was already in minority in both chambers of the Diet. From a policy perspective, a government without Komeito makes life simpler for the LDP. The  junior partner is close to China and was overly dovish and status quo conscious, shying away from tackling critical issues for the country, such as Constitution amendment, potential deployment of the Self Defense Forces in East China Sea, etc. Shinzo Abe often complained about difficulty of moving things with Komeito as a partner. 

Instead, the LDP has found a new partner in Japan Innovation Party, usually called Ishin. It is a conservative party originally founded in Osaka for the purpose of saving the city and prefecture of Osaka from financial ruins. In Osaka, they slashed costs, confronted with the much pampered public workers’ union, reduced services to residents, and cut the size of the prefecture’s assembly. They fiercely attacked vested interests of any kind. Their success, as measured by Osaka’s restored financial health,  has earned them trust among people in Osaka. They are aggressive on deregulation, and a strong advocate of greater autonomy of prefectures and regions, opposing excessive control by Tokyo. Ishin hasn’t been thriving beyond Osaka and the Kansai region in part because their cutting edge is seen as too sharp for many people. Their open hostility toward vested interests isn’t received well by everyone in Japan. Upon forming a new coalition with the LDP, Ishin demands a 50 seats cut at the Lower House, out of 465 today, When the government asks voters to put up with hardships in social security reform, politicians have to be willing to suffer, too, their argument goes. Takaichi has chosen to swallow their demand to rise to power. The LDP would be affected by the change but less so than their opponents. Japan’s electoral system consists of two parts, one on single person constituencies and the other on proportional representation. Ishin demands reductions in proportional representation seats. The LDP has a tighter grip on constituencies than other parties, which allows them to suffer less. So does Ishin as far as Osaka and the Kansai region are concerned. Damages to Komeito and smaller parties would be much greater because of their dependence on proportional representation seats. Let’s see how it goes. Overall, the LDP’s partnering with Ishin is moving Japan’s politics a step forward, with greater stability than it was in the last twelve months. 

Japan’s traditional media has shown little enthusiasm in the birth of the first female prime minister. Generally left-leaning, the media has a tendency to label female politicians as liberally-minded ones who are guardians of average housewives and working women, intensely conscious of human rights, DEI, etc. A conservative woman isn’t what they had always imagined in a female leader. Public opinions are much kinder to Takaichi at the start of her cabinet, with approval rating of 71% according to the Yomiuri, Japan’s largest newspaper in terms of circulation. In all likelihood, Sanae Takaichi isn’t on her way to the next Margaret Thatcher due to policy differences between the two. However, she can be another Giorgea Meloni. The current Prime Minister of Italy is beating original expectations on her, bringing stability back to the country. 

About the author: Mr. Suzuki is a retired banker based in Tokyo, Japan.